Its official, the barbarians have taken over the Liberal party. The defeat of Malcolm Turnbull in last weeks leadership spill has sent progressive Liberals running for the hills, and the conservatives now have the crown Jewels. Not only is the most unlikely and one would have to say un-electable, Mr Tony "People Skills" Abbott now leading the Liberal party, his shadow cabinet is filled with the who's who of Howard government conservatives and climate change sceptics. Considering the loss in the last election was primarily due to the centre rejecting the Howard governments policies on Climate Change and Industrial Relations, why on earth would you appoint a self described climate change "weather vein" and Work Choices apologist as your leader I hear you ask? The answer unfortunately is one Malcolm Turnbull.
Although successful last weeks leadership putsch clearly was not driven by fears of electoral failure, if so Joe Hockey would have been the obvious choice. Joe is perhaps the most likeable of all possible leadership candidates, especially amongst the female vote. Without doubt Hockey had the best chance of regaining the centre ground lost to Rudd at the last election and thus the best chance at success. No the bloodletting witnessed in the Liberal party room last week had much more of a self destructive flair, apparently the party room's grievances were going to be reconciled consequences be damned. Clearly the party rooms fury was with the now ex leader Mr Turnbull. Turnbull's authoritarian, dictatorial and non inclusive leadership style rubbed the old guard of the Howard Government the wrong way, and his heavy handed handling of the Governments ETS only alienated the small "c" conservatives. Whether Minchin and Tuckey are pived that Turnbull declined to attend some dark initiation ceremony deep in the bowls of Liberal party HQ (leaving the old boys standing around paddles in hand and nicely washed black hooded gowns with no one to spank, just picture the scene!), or they have not yet come to terms with the end of Howardism one thing is for sure; the massive destabilization of the Liberal party last moth can be laid at the feet of these two men. But the thing that killed Turnbull was not the opposition of the hard right, their opposition to a pro choice, pro same sex marriage, pro action on climate change republican leader was to be expected as a matter of course. No, it was the loss of the centre of the party that killed Turnbull. A good number of non aligned party room members voted with Abbott in order to reject a candidate who would not head their concerns or opinions. Thus the leadership change was more about Turnbull and factional dominance than it was about Abbot and an election next year.
So what has been a significant post Howard victory for conservatism may well prove to be Pyrrhic for the party. Whether the election of Abbott was ideological for many of those who voted him in the fact remains that there is a new ideology running the Liberal party and certainly that ideology will drive policy. No doubt Abbott's policies on climate change and industrial relations will appeal to the liberal base, however that base will not win the coalition seats or prevent marginals from falling to Labor. Even a moderate swing to the government would entail the loss of 15+ seats condemning the coalition to at least another two terms in opposition. Climate Change is for the Liberal right what Border Protection was for the Labor left at the turn of the century, the caucus can not come to a policy position on the winning side of the centre because of the ideological ball and chain they will drag along to the election. No matter the public mood the Labour left could not come to terms with tough border protection policy, and no matter the public opinion or scientific consensus the climate change sceptics can not introduce economy wide environmental policy to address CO2 emissions. Just like the Labor opposition Abbot is preaching to the choir. The hard right Liberal base is where the majority of climate change sceptics lay will support no real action on climate change and a return to Howard style industrial relations. But the swinging vote, especially the female swinging vote is the vote that lost Howard the election, and you can bet your arse it will be listening to the growing number of reports on Ice cap depletion, average temperature increases and glacial retreat that are being and will be released pre and post Copenhagen. The same mechanism will ensure that working families will vote labour in droves as an apparent Howard Government 2.0 looks like they will re-introduce Work Choices.
To put it simply those small "c" back bench conservatives sitting on marginal seats who voted Turnbull down in protest will be the ones who pay the price for putting an unelectable leader and hard conservative ideology back in charge of the Liberal party. Its the back bench that will pay for the hard right's win over the progressives, not Minchin and Tuckey. Indeed it seems that for the centre of the party the Liberals have cut off their back bench to spite Malcolm Turnbull. The question remains for the conservatives will the victory over Turnbull be worth it come election time?
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